By Rob Helm [bio]
Posted: Jan. 19, 2004

• Illustration: Future OS Releases
• Chart: Past Windows Client Versions
• Chart: Past Windows Server Versions

The following is the full text of an article published by Directions on Microsoft, an independent research firm focused exclusively on Microsoft strategy & technology. Each month we make one or more key articles available to non-subscribers.

The Windows 98, 98 Second Edition (SE), and Me client OSs will get support through 2006, Microsoft has announced. The two-year extension marks the latest shift in the company's Windows product roadmap plans for releasing and retiring Windows versions, plans that are critical to organizations developing Windows software and supporting Windows users. Because no major new desktop OS releases are likely until 2006 at the earliest, companies should expect ongoing updates to existing products for the next two years.

Latest Exception to Life Cycle Policies

Microsoft says continuing support for older Windows versions will particularly help customers in emerging nations, where dependence on these versions is greatest.

The decision draws attention to the company's "life-cycle" support policies, which determine which software updates and support services are available for a product after its release, and for how long. These policies are important for organizations that must plan retirements of existing products, migration to new ones, and development of new applications and devices.

According to Microsoft’s life-cycle policy, business products, including Windows, start life with a five-year mainstream support phase in which Microsoft offers full support, including hotfixes, service packs, free telephone support (depending on the product warranty), and paid per-incident and contract support. Thereafter, products enter an extended phase in which free security patches, paid hotfixes, and phone support continue but most other forms of support do not.

The extended phase nominally runs for two years after the end of mainstream support. However, Microsoft has offered more than two years of extended support for specific Windows versions (e.g., Windows NT 4.0), and it sometimes offers support features such as free security hotfixes for an even longer period.

Windows XP Updated Before Longhorn

Looking ahead, Windows 98, 98 SE, and Me will see no development effort other than hotfixes, as Microsoft focuses on more recent Windows versions. (See the chart "Past Windows Client Versions".) The current version of Windows for clients, Windows XP, was released in Sept. 2001 and is scheduled to exit mainstream support on Dec. 31, 2006—the same date that Windows 98 and its relatives leave the extended phase.

Before the end of 2006, several client releases are planned. In 2004, Microsoft will release a service pack for Windows XP that goes beyond bug fixes to make major changes to its security configuration and delivers some new features. The next full Windows release is code-named Longhorn and is planned for a late 2005 or early 2006 release. (See the illustration "Future OS Releases".)

Announced future releases include the following:

Windows XP Service Pack 2 (SP2). In addition to completely tested fixes for known security vulnerabilities and bugs, SP2 will contain significant changes to Windows XP that lock down the OS to enhance security, and it will add features such as pop-up blocking in the browser. The security lockdown disables some services by default and could affect application compatibility. Estimated release date: mid-2004.

Windows XP Tablet Edition 2004. Code-named Lonestar, this refresh of the Tablet PC platform edition is intended to improve pen input, take advantage of hardware improvements, and support more languages. It might incorporate Windows XP SP2. Estimated release date: mid-2004.

Longhorn. As the next major Windows client release, Longhorn will fundamentally change the way that developers create applications for the first time since the introduction of Windows NT and the Win32 API. Microsoft hopes the changes will spawn a new generation of applications that will convince users to upgrade.

With Longhorn, Microsoft is introducing the following new subsystems, described by their code names:

• Avalon, a new graphics system
• Indigo, which offers improved Web services and other types of communications between applications
• WinFS, which incorporates technology from SQL Server and Windows SharePoint Services to enhance the NTFS file system.

Developers, including Microsoft’s Office and other product teams, will reach these subsystems through a new set of APIs, called WinFX, which significantly extend the .NET Framework and move it into the OS.

A refresh or service pack for Windows Server could ship with the Longhorn client in order to ensure compatibility between the client and server OSs. The next server release will follow the Longhorn client. Estimated Longhorn release date: late 2005 or early 2006.

No Major Windows Server Before 2007

On the server side, Windows NT 4.0 is approaching its final support dates, and mainstream support for Windows 2000 ends in 2005. (See the chart "Past Windows Server Versions".)

The current version of Windows Server, Windows Server 2003, was originally code-named Whistler and was planned for release simultaneously with Windows XP, but it was not released until Apr. 2003. Mainstream support for this version ends June 30, 2008.

The most important future Windows Server versions include the following:

Windows Server 2003 Service Pack 1. In addition to completely tested fixes for known security vulnerabilities and bugs, this service pack will contain bug fixes and security improvements such as a "role-based" security lockdown wizard. Estimated release date: mid-2004.

Windows Server Service Pack for Longhorn. Although Microsoft plans to release a server based on the subsystems and APIs introduced with Longhorn, the server will not likely be released until about 18 months after Longhorn. Therefore, Microsoft will probably have to issue a Windows Server service pack simultaneously with the Longhorn client to ensure server-client compatibility. Microsoft has not announced such a service pack; this is inferred from Longhorn's feature set and schedule. The next versions of server products, such as Exchange, would also probably require this service pack. Estimated release date: concurrent with Longhorn in late 2005 or early 2006.

Longhorn Server. Likely features of this version include a unified systems management infrastructure currently under development as part of the Dynamic Systems Initiative, and full implementation of the feature set (such as WinFS and WinFX) introduced in the Longhorn client.

Some previous Microsoft roadmaps referred to a 2006/2007 server release code-named Blackcomb. While Blackcomb's feature set was never publicly defined, Longhorn Server appears to deliver similar features in the same time frame. Estimated release date: 18 months after Longhorn (2007 or later).

Although no full server OS release is in view before 2007, the Windows Server team will not be idle until then. That group will continue to update free feature packs (such as Windows SharePoint Services) and interoperability products, such as the recently revised Services for Unix. (See "Services for Unix Updated".)

A Shifting Roadmap

Because the Windows roadmap continues to shift, organizations that need to plan migrations, training, and software compatibility testing should closely follow Microsoft's product life cycles. Organizations should particularly watch for changes to the 2005 retirement date of Windows 2000—if migrations proceed slower than Microsoft anticipates, that date could shift further into the future, as happened with Windows 98.

The Windows 2000 retirement schedule is detailed in "Windows 2000 Life Cycle Finalized" in the Feb. 2004 issue of Update.

For an overview of Microsoft's product life-cycle support policies, see support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=fh%3Ben-us%3Blifecycle.

Support life-cycle dates by product are listed at support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=fh;[ln];complifeport.

Supported service packs and their release dates appear at support.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=fh;[ln];lifesupsps.

Service pack release histories for many products are atsupport.microsoft.com/default.aspx?scid=FH;[LN];sp&.

Roadmaps for other key Microsoft enterprise products can be found in the Directions on Microsoft "Enterprise Product Roadmap".